Janni Serra: Shot analysis

For someone that lives 5 minutes from the border with Germany, I remarkely talk little about German football. I’m not exactly sure why that is, but this surely has to change. I don’t tend to talk about men’s top 5 league football and I’m not saying that I’m going to – so that’s why my eyes have turned towards the 2. Bundesliga in Germany.

Obviously there are huge clubs in there as well, but it are the smaller clubs that excite me. That’s why I have decided to look Holstein Kiel, and Janni Serra in particular. I want to analyse how well he does in terms of shots, compared to his 2. Bundesliga peers. The data and video come from Wyscout and have been retrieved on May 9th 2020-2021.

Data analysis

In the data that I’m using all players that have in the striker position in the 2. Bundesliga, 2020-2021 have been included. The reason is that Wysocut has set this as such, so that’s how I’ve taken it on. I’ve filtered them for >900 minutes played, as that’s enough, in my opinion, to make a good judgment on their data performances in the league. In the data, all players are included who have played on the striker’s position, but this doesn’t necessarily have to be their dominant position.

This leaves me with a total of 56 players to look at in data analysis. The data and video has been retrieved on May 9th, 2021.

In the scatterplot above we can see the metrics shots per 90 and shots on target % combined. It tells us how many shots are conducted per 90 and how well these shots are places – are they on target or not? The volume of shots alone does not tell us enough. If the percentage of shots on target is higher, it’s more likely to generate more xG and a higher chance of scoring a goal. Because, if you don’t have a shot on target, you are never going to score – provided that you don’t count deflections.

As we see in the scatterplot, Miedema has 2,27 shots per 90 in the 2. Bundesliga this season with shots on target percentage of 48%. As seen in the image, you can see that he is doing pretty well in both metrics, but he doesn’t stand out.

In the scatterplot above we can see the metrics expected goal per 90 and goals per 90. It tells us how big the probability of a shot being converted into a goal is and the actual goals being scored per 90. We can assess how high the quality of a shot is and how likely it is that that particular shot will end up in a goal.

Serra has an xG of 0,47 per 90 minutes with 0,5  goals scored per 90 minutes. This means that Serra scores more goals than would be expected on the quality of chances and shots. He overperforms her expected goals.

In the graph below you can see the percentile ranks of Serra compared to the 56 players in my database. This shows in which percentile he is for every metric that belongs to the shooting side of the game.

As you can see in the graph, Serra is good. He scores excellent in all the metrics against the players in his position who have played more than 900 minutes. He scores above the 60th percentile rank in every metric, and if we don’t look at the shots on target % metric and the shots per 90 metric, he scored in the 80th percentile rank for the other metrics.

This can also be seen in the beeswarmplot below. This visual shows us the same information, but the visual is slightly different as it visually shows us where the players are in terms of the metric and shows us how far ahead Serra actually is – or isn’t.

As last data comparison I wanted to see how well Serra is doing in the metrics shots per 90 and xG per 90. Well, we have seen that above – but I wanted to see how well he does in comparison to the league leaders, Bochum, and the strikers employed by Bochum.

Shot locations

The shootings stats in itself show us the amount of shots or type of shots or anything data related to the shots. Serra does very well in those terms, but in the next part of the analysis, we want to look at where the shots actually came from and what that does tell about the position Serra attempts to score a goal. Does he generate his xG from a few big chances? Or does he accumulate his xG by shooting a lot of low probable chances?

Janni Serra has scored 11 goals in the 2. Bundesliga 2020-2021 season so far and had 50 shots in total. That is a goal conversion rate of 22%. From those 50 shots, 48% went on target. In the visual above you can see the shot locations of every shot attempted in the current season. In red you see the goals and in grey the shots

What we can conclude from this visual is that the majority of the goals are scored within the six-yard with only one goal coming from the edge of the penalty area – the rest of the goals have been within the penalty area.

In the visual above we see the four most common shot clusters of Serra in the 2. Bundesliga 2020-2021 season. Cluster 0 is yellow and is the most frequent shot cluster with 22 shots. Cluster 3 is green and comes second with 15 shots. Cluster 1 is blue and comes third with 9 shots, and cluster 2 is orange with 4 shots.

Video analysis

In the last part of this shot analysis, I will look at five of Serra’s goals which shows different skill in each of the goals, and therefore shows the quality he has in this 2. Bundesliga season.

In the video above we see Holstein Kiel in their game against SV Sandhausen. Sandhausen lose the ball and in the counter-attack Kiel gets quickly to the other side of the pitch and Serra’s solo ends in a chip to the far corner with his left foot – showcasing his composure in front of goal.

https://vimeo.com/547218304

In the video above we see Holstein Kiel in their game against Nürnberg. Kiel attack from the left side and in this example we see how Serra moves to the front of the goal in order to anticipate a cross, positioned himself well and timed the header to score a goal.

In the video above we see Holstein Kiel in their game against Osnabrück. Kiel attack from the left side and this example is rather similar to goal #2, but in this case Serra moves from the central zone towards the front post and scores with his left foot, just before the defender can make a tackle.

In this example we see Holstein Kiel in their game against Eintracht Braunschweig. Kiel has a corner from the left and the ball is swinging out to the far post. Serra anticipates and times his run to the far post between the penalty spot and the six-yard box and heads the ball into the goal.

In the video above we see Holstein Kiel against Hannover ’96, with Kiel in the attack. They spot Serra in the middle in the attacking third and the cross comes exactly between the two central defenders. Serra anticipates the cross and converts in into a goal with a very good header.

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