Serdar Dursun: Shot analysis

For someone that lives 5 minutes from the border with Germany, I remarkely talk little about German football. I’m not exactly sure why that is, but this surely has to change. I don’t tend to talk about men’s top 5 league football and I’m not saying that I’m going to – so that’s why my eyes have turned towards the 2. Bundesliga in Germany.

Obviously, there are huge clubs in there as well, but it are the smaller clubs that excite me. That’s why I have decided to look at Darmstadt and Serdar Dursun in particular. I want to analyse how well he does in terms of shots, compared to his 2. Bundesliga peers. The data and video come from Wyscout/Instat and have been retrieved on June 17th 2020-2021.

Data analysis

In the data that I’m using all players that have in the striker position in the 2. Bundesliga, 2020-2021 have been included. The reason is that Wycout has set this as such, so that’s how I’ve taken it on. I’ve filtered them for >900 minutes played, as that’s enough, in my opinion, to make a good judgment on their data performances in the league. In the data, all players are included who have played on the striker’s position, but this doesn’t necessarily have to be their dominant position.

This leaves me with a total of 56 players to look at in data analysis. The data and video has been retrieved on June 17th, 2021.

In the scatterplot above we can see the metrics shots per 90 and shots on target % combined. It tells us how many shots are conducted per 90 and how well these shots are places – are they on target or not? The volume of shots alone does not tell us enough. If the percentage of shots on target is higher, it’s more likely to generate more xG and a higher chance of scoring a goal. Because, if you don’t have a shot on target, you are never going to score – provided that you don’t count deflections.

As we see in the scatterplot, Dursun has 2,97 shots per 90 in the 2. Bundesliga this season with shots on target percentage of 48,91%. As seen in the image, you can see that he is doing pretty well in both metrics, and relatively stands out.

In the scatterplot above we can see the metrics expected goal per 90 and goals per 90. It tells us how big the probability of a shot being converted into a goal is and the actual goals being scored per 90. We can assess how high the quality of a shot is and how likely it is that that particular shot will end up in a goal.

Dursun has an xG of 0,61 per 90 minutes with 0,87  goals scored per 90 minutes. This means that Dursun scores more goals than would be expected on the quality of chances and shots. He overperforms her expected goals.

In the graph below you can see the percentile ranks of Dursun compared to the 53 players in my database. This shows in which percentile he is for every metric that belongs to the shooting side of the game.

As you can see in the graph, Dursun is good. He scores excellent in all the shooting metrics against the players in his position who have played more than 900 minutes. In 4 of the 5 metrics, he scores in the 99th percentile.

This can also be seen in the beeswarmplot below. This visual shows us the same information, but the visual is slightly different as it visually shows us where the players are in terms of the metric and shows us how far ahead Dursun actually is – or isn’t.

Shot locations

The shootings stats in itself show us the amount of shots or type of shots or anything data related to the shots. Dursun does very well in those terms, but in the next part of the analysis, we want to look at where the shots actually came from and what that does tell about the position Dursun attempts to score a goal. Does he generate his xG from a few big chances? Or does he accumulate his xG by shooting a lot of low probable chances?

Serdar Dursun has scored 30 goals in the 2. Bundesliga 2020-2021 season and had 100 shots in total. That is a goal conversion rate of 30%. From those 50 shots, 55% went on target. In the visual above you can see the shot locations of every shot attempted in the current season. In red you see the goals and in grey the shots that didn’t result in a goal.

What we can conclude from this visual is that the majority of the goals are scored within the six-yard with only one goal coming from the edge of the penalty area – the rest of the goals have been within the penalty area.

Video analysis

In the last part of this shot analysis, I will look at five of Dursun’s goals which shows different skill in each of the goals, and therefore shows the quality he has in this 2. Bundesliga season.

In the video above we see Dursun’s ability to create something out of a corner. He makes a run towards the six-yard box, but in doing so also loses his marker and creates himself just a little bit more space – so he can head the ball to the far post in the game against Karlsruher SC.

In the video above we see Darmstadt in their game against Holstein Kiel, with Darmstadt attacking from left to right. Dursun plays as the striker who is marked by the central defenders, but gets the ball eventual through a pass and a deflection. Not the cleanest of finishes, but it goes in nonetheless.

In the video above we see Darmstadt in their game against Fortuna Düsseldorf, with Darmstadt ready to take a penalty via Dursun. His ability to take a penalty is demonstrated here, with his penalty being that difficult height and pace, which makes it more difficult for the keeper to save it.

In the video above we Darmstadt in their game against Paderborn, with Darmstadt attacking from right to left. Dursun asumes the highest position on the pitch and tries to shoot from all angles. His technical abilities are great and so he shows with this goal via a very good volley with his right foot.

Many of his goals came from inside the penalty area, but in the video above we can see Darmstadt playing against Erzgebirge Aue. In this counter-attack Dursun gets the ball on and decided to cut inside and shoot. His accuracy from outside the box is pretty decent as well.

Final thoughts

Dursun had a very good and exciting season, and although his age is not optimal – he is a very exciting player for this particular league. Even more so for a side looking for promotion to the Bundesliga. I might have expected him going to a promotion chasing side, but Turkish giant Fenerbahce have signed him for the coming season. It will be interesting to see how he adapts there, but his goalscoring ability is good at 2.Bundesliga level.


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